A question I get asked frequently is “How are you managing the heat of Kerala after returning from the cold climate in UK?”. I reply that I`m doing just fine, after all, I have spent more time in Kerala than my total years in UK. However, I have to admit, this has been one of the most uncomfortable years weather-wise with temperatures rising into the mid and late 30s and humidity levels exceeding 85%.
While people all over have been discussing the heat, another factor high up and never too far away from peoples minds is the grand spectacle of a weather system called the Monsoon. The Monsoons are meant to bring in the much needed rains to cool of the parched Kerala landscape before the heat drives people up the wall.
When my father’s generation talks about the monsoon, they refer to it as a dependable force that hits the Kerala coast with precision. It had traditionally been setting in on the day that the schools re-open after the summer vacations - June 1st of every year. They talk about the excitement of going to school with a new umbrella, the massive downpour, thunder and lightning, localised flooding, swarming of fishes from the rivers to paddy fields and the sigh of relief that the farming community in Kerala heave in anticipation of their thirsty crops being well irrigated by this annual water supply.
These days however, nothing is predictable any more. The precise date of June first has become more of a myth. In the last five years the monsoon has never set in on that date.
| Year | Actual Onset Date | Forecast Onset Date |
| 2005 | 7th June | 10th June |
| 2006 | 26th May | 30th May |
| 2007 | 28th May | 24th May |
| 2008 | 31st May | 29th May |
| 2009 | 23rd May | 26th May |
Moreover, the rains themselves have been irregular and unpredictable. It takes a lot of factors to gel in for the monsoons to set in. The chief predictors used are (don't ask me what half of these mean!) i) Minimum Temperature over North-west India, ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) Outgoing Long wave (OLR) over south-west Pacific region.
There are 14 weather stations used in Monsoon onset monitoring ( viz. Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kasargode and Mangalore). If after 10th May, 60% of the available 14 stations enlisted, report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala is declared on the 2nd day.
This year was meant to be different and I had been looking forward to receiving the monsoon on June 1st. Having satisfied all of the above conditions, the monsoon had been officially declared to have hit the Kerala coast on May 31st and I was eagerly waiting for it to work its way up to Thodupuzha, but wait as I might, the rains did not arrive.
It was later that I got to know that the monsoon had been hijacked as it worked its way upwards. A cyclone system, called cyclone Phet formed near the Gujarat – Pakistan coast (its currently developing as a severe- category 2 cyclone), sucking the monsoonal moisture away from Kerala towards the north. Our monsoon was literally robbed of its water and halted in its tracks!
And so here I sit waiting for the rains. I`m sure many of you are just as eager to see the monsoon. As we wait for the evasive visitor to arrive, here are some links that the monsoonally inclined would find interesting:
The Indian Meteorological Department website with loads of interesting weather related information, including frequent monsoon updates.
Indian Weatherman – an interesting blog with frequent updates on everything related to weather in India. Here is his twitter feed if you prefer that.
Chasing the Monsoon – the perfect book to read while you await the monsoon. Written by Alexander Frater as he followed the monsoon in an epic adventure up the Kerala coast and into the north of India, climaxing in Cherrapunji.
Follow the monsoon online with NDTV’s Monsoon express (no affiliation) with lots of monsoon related, articles, picture and videos.
that's interesting :)
ReplyDeleteI think even in the late 80's the monsoon rains were pretty strong. I still remember days of non stop rain, some times even weeks of it.
Off late, it has to be said that rain is sparse and very sporadic. it has been terrible for the last few years.
the sad truth is that i dont think our state is equipped to take such rains any more. it is not any more the romantic rains but it mostly wreck havoc these days.